@GRhin I think this was the most honest post from you so far. Thank you for it.
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This is based on my expert guess and dont try to elaborate it. Future will tell us.
I have said the same thing several times, never tired to hide it. The last post was no more or less honest than any other post, maybe you simply better understand what I have been saying all along.
And as has been mentioned, this is supposed to spark discussion. you have given an opinion and then specifically tell us
not to discuss it. That kind of defeats the purpose of posting it does it not?
I will now discuss what you dont want me to discuss.
I think you put OTS a bit low on your 3 weeks ago list (at the time i would have put OTS and NOH equal based solely on what I could see from the forum, so i guess someone had to be fourth, just my "intuitive leap" considered OTS to be in a better position - I did not see Darkness coming), however as they have disappeared it appears justified. I know you think i am biased here, and frankly i stopped caring, but I would like to hear your unbiased reasoning for it.
Remember, while I may be disagreeing with you, I am not challenging your prediction (as I say OTS died so your prediction was correct), I am trying to understand how you arrived at it. You also put NOH ahead of Darkness now, and I am interested to hear why. tbh NOH and OTS were close enough in all stats that an intuitive leap is almost required, but you have dismissed that as the enemy of good analysis, so I assume you have somehting more substantial to base it off. NOH and Darkness are in very different situations stats wise and map/diplomacy wise, so I trust there is something in particular that you are seeing to justify their comparison. And also at that time I did not see TWC as being on top, in fact I saw them similar to NOH, so could you enlighten me on what I missed that caused you to put them on top?
OTS was a good tribe that made a couple small errors with massive implications. First off their "alliances" may as well have not existed, and so their diplomatic postition as a whole was bad. I believe if WOW had have backed OTS even a little, OTS could have overpowered Darkness and -X-, or at least if WOW had have prevented Darknesses crossing their territory, the central OTS could have held out indefinately against NOH, they were doing so after all, untill Darkness smashed into their flank. The alliance with A-I was pointless as they were never in a position to help each other at all, and A-I dissappeared as a challenger very early on in the world.
I think their most devastating mistake was earlier on though, and that is their alliance with WOW in the first place. The alliance crowded out several players who lived between the central and southeastern clusters, who then restarted on the rim causing a gap between those clusters and creating a third cluster. If they had have fought WOW instead early on, they may have lost, which would put them in a strong rim presence simlar to NOH or -X-, or they could have won which would potentially have made them the dominant core tribe. The alliance with WOW never amounted to much more than a few thousand defense, and a couple nukes used to help OTS against NOH, while the benefit to WOW was to provide a secure buffer between them and NOH and a distraction to -D-. A very lopsided alliance. And I guess it paints a picture of a divided tribe (three clusters is rather divided, not sure why i didnt make that connection earlier), they should have stood together in whatever strategy they chose to pursue, whether it be fighting or restarting, but they didnt, and so they never had the regional numerical superiority required for rapid growth.
However none of your stats could quantify these diplomatic blunders, they put NOH ahead of OTS, despite failing to make much progress against them, if any at all. It could not predict Darkness marching through WOW to catch OTS in a vice, or the fact that -X- and -D- would overwhelm the southeastern cluster through sheer numbers (i was watching the reports, on a per player basis OTS were far better than the attackers, it was just the quantity that overpowered them from what I saw). So I wonder why you ranked them this way?
In anticipation of your response being the one thing I can recall you pointing to previously to debate my opposite position - bash - i have gone back three weeks to see what I posted. there I saw a very similar offensive bash per member, and NOH had an extra 25% defensive bash per member. Now we disagree on the relevance of defensive bash (this could mean you werent attacking OTS, while they were attacking you, which would make me think they were keeping you on the back foot, therefore doing better, or it could mean they were dodging your attacks so you were getting off bash elsewhere as well, which could imply either one for doing better depending on how you look at it), however the difference is relatively minor if you include it.
And if bash is your main basis for putting NOH ahead of OTS, then surely POTs crazy bash at that time should had least earnt them a mention?
As a side note, my update three weeks ago actually paints a picture similar to your prediction. Mentioned NOH doing well, and OTS losing villages to multiple tribes, and that POT wasnt doing well. Just missed out on your high opinion of TWC.
I don't wanna annoy my bestie coolnite (<3)
