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I just used 47 masters of loot. At advertised 10% chance of upgrading a building one would expect 4-5 successes. Only 1 was realized. Is under 50 a reasonable enough sample to determine the ratio of successful upgrades is off?

I wrote this memo to my tribemates, but realize some who have already gone wont see it. I will post it here for all. Id call it a note, but its a lot too long winded for that. As an addendum, I'd like to thank Shek, Jrae, Tybor and their crew for rising up and being so well organized...