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Master of Loot Working Properly?

I just used 47 masters of loot. At advertised 10% chance of upgrading a building one would expect 4-5 successes. Only 1 was realized. Is under 50 a reasonable enough sample to determine the ratio of successful upgrades is off?
 

DeletedUser2084

Guest
I just used 47 masters of loot. At advertised 10% chance of upgrading a building one would expect 4-5 successes. Only 1 was realized. Is under 50 a reasonable enough sample to determine the ratio of successful upgrades is off?
Nope. That's not really how it works. It's 10% chance PER MoL. It's entirely possible to get no upgrades and again entirely possible to have all 47 upgrade.
There isn't a counter or anything that says "Ok yep, 47 sent, that means 4.7 rounded to 5 should be upgraded". it's most likely independent of each other hence why it varies so much. I've had like 11 or something on 50 MoL's once.
 

DeletedUser486

Guest
It's not like the chances increase, though that would be a worthy suggestion.
If you flip a coin 50 times, you aren't going to get 25 heads and 25 tails. You have a 50% chance of flipping heads each time.
 

DeletedUser3393

Guest
Calculating the probabilities using the Binomial Theorem the probability of only getting 1 success out of 47 is 3.7%. Unlikely yes but not so unlikely to be suspicious.
 
Later I used 50 more and observed 4 successful runs.
5/100 obviously seems less than suggested 10 but perhaps not statistically significant.
 

DeletedUser2084

Guest
Later I used 50 more and observed 4 successful runs.
5/100 obviously seems less than suggested 10 but perhaps not statistically significant.

Idk, I personally found the higher the fields were - the harder they were to upgrade.

On average I would use 300-500 per village.
 

DeletedUser2185

Guest
Let me explain, and in hope it will make more sense.

MoL works on a chance basis, it has a 1 in 9 chance of upgrading, Yato is correct; the chance will not increase each time you use one, be it on the same target or twice in a row.
 

DeletedUser3393

Guest
Idk, I personally found the higher the fields were - the harder they were to upgrade.

On average I would use 300-500 per village.
Probability is one of those subjects that is a little strange in that people perception on luck is often contrary to reality.
 

DeletedUser3444

Guest
I once got 22 upgrades with +/-70 MOL'a. Rocketeered me from rank 200 to 80 almost instantly. After that I barely ever gained an upgrade on anything :p
 
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