• Hello, Guest!
    Are you passionate about Tribal Wars 2 and like to help your fellow players?
    We currently have open positions for Forum Moderators!

    >> Join the Tribal Wars 2 Team now! <<
    We would love to hear from you!

Calculation for Noble Loyalty Drop

DeletedUser

Guest
I'm pretty solid with math so what happened doesn't sit right. I'm early in world 2 so I'm sending one noble at a time. I've played TW for several years, so I know that nothing is guaranteed when nobling. I'm not even surprised that after four attempts I still hadn't completed it (it had 1 loyalty left). What strikes me as odd is that each of the noble hits took off 23 points.
100 to 77 with 1 gained in the round trip
78 to 45 with 1 gained in the round trip
46 to 23 with 1 gained in the round trip
24 to 1.


The range is 20-35 meaning a 15 point spread. Hitting any number in that spread is 1/15. Hitting the same number four times in a row is (1/15)^4 which is 0.002%

Am I to believe I failed with odds in my favor 99.998% to get any loyalty drop in four tries other than 23? If so, I need to go play the powerball.

Just thought I'd mention it in case other math geeks thought it seemed weird too or in case your noble formula 'random variable' feature was locked off.
 

DeletedUser

Guest
Last time I try to do math when super tired.... Any forum mod feel free to delete this embarrassment from the public record pleeeeeease.
 

DeletedUser

Guest
Bad subtraction aside, if it were to be 78 to 53, my statistical probability calculation is still correct :p
 

DeletedUser486

Guest
I just sent a train on a village, it landed in this order of damage on loyalty:
100-80
80-60
60-27
27-7

I mean I was skeptical before, but if trains are struggling to randomly attack loyalty across a train then there must be something broken. I find it unlikely that trains would consistently do the same damage across 3 of the four nobles.
As slow as this world already is, now we have to put together 5 noble trains because it is unlikely this will be looked into/fixed any time before I retire.
 

DeletedUser108

Guest
Thanks for your post. Computers in general are not great at generating random numbers. It is all set on the algorithm used to generate the number. I don't think that there is basis here to call this a bug, since truly random is not achievable, nor needed in this circumstance. There, however, may be a room to suggest that a different method is used.

Source: http://engineering.mit.edu/ask/can-computer-generate-truly-random-number
 

DeletedUser

Guest
CrimsonBlue;n6868 said:
Thanks for your post. Computers in general are not great at generating random numbers. It is all set on the algorithm used to generate the number. I don't think that there is basis here to call this a bug, since truly random is not achievable, nor needed in this circumstance. There, however, may be a room to suggest that a different method is used.

Source: http://engineering.mit.edu/ask/can-computer-generate-truly-random-number

Thanks for the article. It describes that it still tends to follow a pattern within the 'randomness'. Isn't it possible though to make a pattern within a pattern? If the pattern is to favor the repetition of one number in a four noble attempt, then can't you also make it such that if x is selected and x was used 1 time in the previous 4 attempts, then x is reselected?
 

DeletedUser

Guest
Also, I don't recall ever having this problem in the first TW, so why wasn't that random generation system simply carried forward to this title?
 
Top