DeletedUser
Guest
I'm pretty solid with math so what happened doesn't sit right. I'm early in world 2 so I'm sending one noble at a time. I've played TW for several years, so I know that nothing is guaranteed when nobling. I'm not even surprised that after four attempts I still hadn't completed it (it had 1 loyalty left). What strikes me as odd is that each of the noble hits took off 23 points.
100 to 77 with 1 gained in the round trip
78 to 45 with 1 gained in the round trip
46 to 23 with 1 gained in the round trip
24 to 1.
The range is 20-35 meaning a 15 point spread. Hitting any number in that spread is 1/15. Hitting the same number four times in a row is (1/15)^4 which is 0.002%
Am I to believe I failed with odds in my favor 99.998% to get any loyalty drop in four tries other than 23? If so, I need to go play the powerball.
Just thought I'd mention it in case other math geeks thought it seemed weird too or in case your noble formula 'random variable' feature was locked off.
100 to 77 with 1 gained in the round trip
78 to 45 with 1 gained in the round trip
46 to 23 with 1 gained in the round trip
24 to 1.
The range is 20-35 meaning a 15 point spread. Hitting any number in that spread is 1/15. Hitting the same number four times in a row is (1/15)^4 which is 0.002%
Am I to believe I failed with odds in my favor 99.998% to get any loyalty drop in four tries other than 23? If so, I need to go play the powerball.
Just thought I'd mention it in case other math geeks thought it seemed weird too or in case your noble formula 'random variable' feature was locked off.